Regional Analysis on Nationally Determined Contributions – Final 2020 Report

The Mediterranean basin is one the most impacted region by climate change in the world. There is an urgent need for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation as well as for the implementation of adaptation actions to cope with climate change impacts. A collective response, embracing both mitigation as well as adaptation aspects, could lead to a limited impact of climate change in the region. In 2019, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Gap report 1 stated that, globally, GHG emissions must drop by 7,6% every year between 2020 and 2030 to get in line with the Paris Agreement and keep global warming below +1,5°C in 2100 compared to preindustrial levels. The 2020 Gap report2 states that even if all commitments (conditional and unconditional) from the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by the Parties to the UNFCCC at COP-21 in 2015 are achieved, global warming will reach +3°C in 2100. This figure accounts for the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global GHG emissions, which is expected to cause a decrease up to 7% in 2020. This is expected to translate in a 0,01°C reduction of temperature rising by 2050. According to the Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change (MedECC)3, the average temperature in the Mediterranean region have risen by 1,54°C compared to the 1860-1890 levels. This increase is 0,4°C greater than the global average change. It shows that towards the next NDC update taking place in 2021 at COP-26 in Glasgow, climate ambition needs to be enhanced, and particularly in the south and eastern Mediterranean region. Citepa has been mandated by the Union for Mediterranean (UfM) to analyse the state of progress regarding the Nationally Determined Contributions updating process towards COP-26 for the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (SEMed) region. The SEMed region covers the Mediterranean basin countries: Albania, Algeria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Montenegro, Palestine, Tunisia and Turkey. This report aims to provide an analysis at the regional level for the environmental and economic contexts as well as national level to assess the state of progress regarding the NDC update.

Authors: CITEPA: Etienne FEUTREN, Ghislaine TANDONNET GUIRAN, Jérôme BOUTAND (Executive Director). UNDP, external reviewers: Yulia Isaeva, Walid Ali. Line manager: Kishan Khoday. UfM Coordinator: Arnault Graves

June 2021

Regional Analysis on Nationally Determined Contributions – Executive Summary